The Confidence Illusion: How To Act Without Feeling Ready

The Scientific Foundation of the Confidence Illusion

The Illusion of Information Adequacy

A recent study published in the journal PLOS ONE revealed a phenomenon that scientists called the “illusion of information adequacy.” Professor Angus Fletcher and his colleagues from Ohio State University discovered that people naturally assume they have all the necessary information to make a decision, even when this is far from the case.

In an experiment involving more than 1,200 people, researchers divided participants into three groups. One group received only arguments in favor of a certain decision, the second only arguments against, and the third complete information. Surprisingly, people who received only half the information were even more confident in their decisions than those who had the complete picture.

This research reveals a fundamental misconception: we think our confidence is based on complete information, but in reality, it’s often the result of limited perception. We feel “not ready” not because we lack information, but because we’re aware of its incompleteness. Paradoxically, deeper understanding often leads to less confidence.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect: When Ignorance Breeds Confidence

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with low competence in a certain area tend to overestimate their abilities. Research shows that beginners often demonstrate unreasonably high confidence, while experts are more cautious in their assessments.

Interestingly, recent studies suggest that the classic Dunning-Kruger effect may be partly a statistical illusion. Nevertheless, the core principle remains true: the more we learn about the complexity of any field, the more we recognize the limits of our knowledge. As Socrates said: “I know that I know nothing.”

This explains why experts are often less confident in their judgments than novices. They see nuances, complexities, and potential pitfalls that are invisible to the inexperienced eye. Thus, expecting absolute confidence before action is a trap that becomes increasingly insurmountable as your competence grows.

The Neurobiology of Confidence: The 90-Second Rule

Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor, a neuroanatomist from Harvard University, offers a revolutionary understanding of the nature of emotions, including uncertainty. In her research, she discovered that the emotional reaction triggered by chemicals in the brain lasts approximately 90 seconds. After that, any continuing emotional experience is maintained by the person themselves, mentally “chewing over” the situation.

This discovery has profound implications for understanding uncertainty. It shows that a prolonged state of doubt is not an inevitable reaction to a situation, but the result of our mental “looping” on certain thoughts. We literally create and maintain our uncertainty by repeatedly activating the same neural pathways.

Why We Wait for the “Feeling of Readiness”

Evolutionary Perspective: A Protective Mechanism

From an evolutionary standpoint, caution and avoiding the unknown were important for survival. Our ancestors who rushed into unexplored situations without proper preparation were more likely to fall victim to predators or other dangers. Thus, feeling uncertain in the face of the unknown is an ancient protective mechanism.

The problem is that in the modern world, this mechanism often triggers in situations where there is no physical danger. A presentation at work, meeting new people, or learning a new skill—all activate the same fear systems as encountering a predator in prehistoric times. Our brain doesn’t always distinguish between social threats and physical dangers.

Social Programming: The Myth of “Natural” Confidence

Society and culture reinforce the illusion of confidence. We see successful people who seem absolutely confident in themselves and assume that their confidence preceded their success. We rarely see the doubts, fears, and insecurities they overcame on the path to achievement.

Research conducted by psychologist Kyle Emanuel Brown shows that traditional leadership emphasizes displaying confidence, but true authority comes from deeper self-trust. “Confidence depends on external validation, making it fragile and situational,” notes Brown. Many high-performing leaders project flawless confidence but privately struggle with impostor syndrome or self-doubt.

This creates a vicious cycle: we wait until we feel confident before acting, not realizing that even the most successful people rarely experience complete confidence before taking important steps.

Cognitive Distortion: Confusion Between Feelings and Reality

One of the most profound misconceptions related to confidence is the belief that our feelings accurately reflect reality. As Claire Downham explains in her video “The Confidence Myth,” “we don’t feel what we’re going to do—we feel our thoughts about it.”

Neurobiological research shows that the brain doesn’t distinguish between real and imagined threats. When we imagine failure or rejection, our body reacts as if it were actually happening, causing physical sensations of anxiety and uncertainty. These sensations are then interpreted as “evidence” of our unreadiness.

Five Strategies for Acting Without Feeling Ready

Understanding the illusion of confidence is the first step. But how do we apply this knowledge in practice? How do we act decisively when we don’t feel ready? Here are five science-based strategies that will help you overcome paralyzing uncertainty.

1. The ABCD Method: Deconstructing Uncertainty

Psychologists have developed an effective method of cognitive restructuring known as ABCD:

• A (Activating event) — Identify the situation causing uncertainty.
• B (Beliefs) — Uncover automatic thoughts and beliefs associated with this situation.
• C (Consequences) — Recognize how these beliefs affect your emotions and behavior.
• D (Dispute) — Check the validity of these beliefs and find alternative perspectives.

For example, if you experience uncertainty before an important presentation:

• A: Upcoming presentation to management.
• B: “I must feel absolutely confident or I’ll fail,” “If I’m nervous, everyone will notice and judge me.”
• C: Anxiety, procrastination, over-preparation, possible rejection of the opportunity.
• D: “Even experienced speakers feel nervousness,” “My value isn’t determined by the absence of nervousness, but by the content of my presentation,” “A little anxiety might even improve my performance.”

Research shows that regular practice of cognitive restructuring can significantly reduce the impact of negative thoughts on behavior and emotional state.

2. The 5-4-3-2-1 Rule: Overcoming Analysis Paralysis

Psychotherapist Mel Robbins developed the “5-4-3-2-1” technique that helps overcome analysis paralysis and move to action. The essence of the method is simple: when you feel uncertainty or resistance, mentally count down from 5 to 1, then immediately act.

The neurobiological basis for this technique is that it activates the prefrontal cortex—the area responsible for decision-making and impulse control. The countdown interrupts patterns of anxious thinking and creates a mental switch from contemplation to action.

Research shows that this method is particularly effective for overcoming procrastination and starting difficult tasks when the feeling of readiness is absent.

3. The WOOP Technique: Visualization with Implementation Intentions

Psychologist Gabriele Oettingen developed the WOOP technique (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan), which transforms traditional positive visualization into a more effective tool:

• W (Wish) — Define a specific goal or action.
• O (Outcome) — Imagine the best possible outcome and associated feelings.
• O (Obstacle) — Identify internal obstacles, including uncertainty, that might hinder you.
• P (Plan) — Create a specific action plan in the format “If [obstacle], then [action].”

Unlike simple positive visualization, WOOP includes realistic consideration of obstacles and specific plans to overcome them. Research shows that this approach significantly increases the likelihood of action and goal achievement.

“Positive thinking about the future can give us pleasant feelings in the present, but not necessarily the energy to achieve goals,” notes Oettingen. “WOOP works because it connects the desired future with the reality of the present through specific action plans.”

4. The Micro-Steps Method: Action Without Waiting for Readiness

Research in habit formation shows that one of the most effective ways to overcome uncertainty is breaking large tasks into micro-steps so small they don’t trigger resistance.

Professor B.J. Fogg from Stanford University, founder of the Behavior Research Laboratory, calls these “tiny habits.” The essence of the approach is to start with actions requiring minimal effort and not activating feelings of uncertainty.

For example, if you want to write a book but don’t feel ready, start with a commitment to write just one sentence a day. This is such a small step that it bypasses the brain’s resistance systems and doesn’t require a feeling of readiness.

This approach echoes ideas outlined in Forget Motivation: The Proven Power of Relentless Discipline, where we discuss how discipline and systematic actions can be much more effective than waiting for inspiration or motivation.

5. The 3-3-3 Practice: Gratitude with Neuroplastic Effect

Research in positive psychology and neuroplasticity shows that regular gratitude practice can significantly reduce anxiety and increase resilience to uncertainty. The 3-3-3 method represents a structured approach to this practice:

• Write down 3 things you’re grateful for today.
• Write down 3 things you successfully did despite uncertainty in the past.
• Write down 3 qualities that helped you overcome these difficulties.

Neurobiological research shows that such practice activates the production of dopamine and serotonin—neurotransmitters associated with feelings of satisfaction and well-being. Moreover, regularly reminding yourself of past successes creates new neural connections that over time weaken the automatic reaction of uncertainty.

“The brain forms neural pathways based on repeated experience,” explains neurobiologist Rick Hanson. “When you regularly focus on moments when you acted despite uncertainty, you literally reprogram your brain for greater resilience.”

Including this practice in your Morning Habits That Make You More Successful and Focused can significantly improve your ability to act under uncertainty throughout the day.

Real Stories: Action Without Feeling Ready

Sarah’s Story: From Perfectionism Paralysis to Creative Breakthrough

Sarah, a graphic designer from Moscow, had postponed launching her own creative project for years. “I always found reasons why I wasn’t ready yet,” she recounts. “I needed to improve my skills, gain more experience, wait for the perfect moment.”

The turning point came when she read about the concept of a “minimum viable product” and decided to apply this approach to her creativity. Instead of waiting until she felt completely ready, Sarah launched a small project—a series of illustrations she published weekly.

“The first works were far from perfect, and I felt extremely uncertain putting them on public display,” she admits. “But with each publication, it became easier. I received feedback, learned, and developed in the process.”

A year later, Sarah had not only significantly improved her skills but also attracted the attention of major clients, allowing her to start her own business. “If I had waited until I felt completely ready, I would still be waiting,” she says. “Action created confidence, not the other way around.”

Michael’s Story: Overcoming Impostor Syndrome in Science

Michael, a young scientist, faced classic impostor syndrome when he got the opportunity to speak at an international conference. “I was sure I wasn’t ready, that my research wasn’t deep enough, that I would be exposed as a fraud,” he recalls.

Instead of declining the opportunity, Michael applied the ABCD method to deconstruct his uncertainty. He identified irrational beliefs behind his fear and challenged them by gathering objective evidence of his competence.

“I still didn’t feel completely confident when I went on stage,” he admits. “But I realized that was okay. I focused on sharing knowledge that could be useful to others, not on my feelings.”

Michael’s presentation was well-received, opening doors to new collaboration opportunities. “I realized that expecting complete confidence is a trap, especially in science, where there’s always an unknown,” he says. “Real progress happens at the edge of comfort, where uncertainty is inevitable.”

Practical Steps: From Understanding to Action

Now that we understand the illusion of confidence and have strategies to overcome it, let’s look at specific steps you can take today.

Step 1: Identify Areas of “Waiting for Readiness”

Take a sheet of paper and write down three areas of your life where you’re postponing action, waiting for a feeling of readiness. This could be anything: from career ambitions to personal relationships or creative projects.

For each area, answer the question: “What exactly am I waiting for to feel ready?” Often, when we explicitly formulate these expectations, we see their unrealistic or subjective nature.

Step 2: Apply the 90-Second Rule

The next time you feel uncertainty before an important action, apply Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor’s 90-second rule. Acknowledge the emotion, allow it to pass through your body, and observe how it naturally dissipates within 90 seconds.

If the feeling of uncertainty returns after this period, recognize that you’re actively maintaining it with your thoughts. Ask yourself: “What am I telling myself that’s sustaining this feeling?” and “What alternative perspective might be more helpful?”

Step 3: Create a “Micro-Steps Map”

Choose one goal you’re postponing due to feeling unready, and break it down into the smallest possible steps. Each step should be so simple that it doesn’t trigger resistance or the need to feel “ready.”

For example, if you want to start running but don’t feel prepared enough, the first micro-step might be simply putting on sports clothes and going outside for 30 seconds. Don’t focus on the end goal—concentrate on completing the current micro-step.

Step 4: Practice “Action, Then Confidence”

Choose one small action you can take today without feeling completely ready. This could be anything: from sending an email to a potential partner to signing up for a course that interests you.

Before acting, acknowledge your uncertainty: “I feel uncertain, and that’s okay. I can act even while experiencing these feelings.” After acting, write down what you learned and how your feelings changed.

Step 5: Create a “Support Council”

Research shows that social support significantly increases resilience to uncertainty. Find 2-3 people who understand your goal and can support you in moments of doubt.

Explain to them the concept of the confidence illusion and ask them to remind you of this when you start postponing actions, waiting for a “feeling of readiness.” Sometimes an external perspective is exactly what we need to see our self-limiting patterns.

Conclusion: Liberation from the Tyranny of “Readiness”

The illusion of confidence is one of the most insidious traps on the path to self-realization. Waiting for a “feeling of readiness” before acting can become a lifelong sentence to mediocrity and unrealized potential.

Scientific research clearly shows: confidence doesn’t precede action—it follows it. It’s not a prerequisite for starting, but a result of the process. As Claire Downham notes, “confidence isn’t about eliminating emotions; it’s about understanding that your feelings don’t know what you’re truly capable of.”

Remember: the greatest achievements in human history were accomplished by people who acted not because they felt completely ready, but because they understood that true readiness comes only through action. As Theodore Roosevelt said: “Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.”

Today I invite you to take the first step. Don’t wait for all doubts to disappear. Don’t wait for the perfect moment or feeling of complete readiness. Start small, but start now. And remember: every action taken despite uncertainty not only brings you closer to your goals but also liberates you from the tyranny of the confidence illusion.

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Related Video

In this video, Claire Downham explores the common misconception that we need to feel confident before acting. She explains that we actually don’t feel what we’re going to do, but rather our thoughts about it, and shows how to break free from this trap.

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